Have Brexit Negotiations Completely Stalled?

It’s been more than a year since Europe woke up to the shocking news that a majority of UK voters had elected to withdraw from the EU, popularly known as the Brexit referendum. And now, formal negotiations about what the terms of this withdrawal have been underway between the United Kingdom and the European Union for nearly six months.

Being that the exit process must legally be completed by the end of March 2019, many are concerned about the lack of progress that is being made in negotiations. Some are even resigned to the idea that Brexit negotiations have already stalled, and that no deal will be reached that will allow for a smooth transition period as the UK breaks off from the other 27 EU member states.

An early stalemate in Brexit negotiations

Part of the reason for the gridlock is the fundamentally different ways in which the Brexit matter is being viewed by David Davis and Michel Barnier, the lead negotiators for the UK and EU, respectively. On the one hand, Barnier is more immediately concerned with logistical issues such as the border between the Republic of Ireland, an EU country, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK. But Davis argues that matters like that can’t be negotiated until there is a clearer understanding of what the new, post-Brexit relationship between the UK and the EU will be.

Possibilities for progress at the October EU summit

Some British officials are hopeful that there will be an opportunity to make more substantive progress at the EU summit in Brussels next month. There is speculation that British Prime Minister Theresa May will make a direct appeal to the leaders of EU member states. However, her European counterparts have insisted that they intend to maintain a unified front, so it is unlikely that such a strategy would make much of a difference.

If no deal is reached, once the deadline arrives, the UK’s legal relationship with the EU will transform into one that is no different from any other non-EU country. This is cause for concern for millions of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa. However, Europe is still considering this a “second- or third-order issue” for them. The possibility of a “no deal” outcome, then, is a very real one.